The Barrel of Monkeys' New Clothes

I have been pointing out for years that the hardest thing about judging wine is remaining objective. I have shared my own techniques for eliminating variables, which include always using the same glass, and tasting in the same order. Now Stanford University has published a report that illustrates exactly what i have been trying to stress. It is easier to fool ourselves than we think.

The report demonstrates that telling someone the cost of a wine influences their perception of it. This is very similar to telling someone to not think about a barrel of monkeys. Plant the perception, put people in a position where they defer their own opinions to an expert or a supposed fact, and you can make them believe almost anything. This is exactly why I keep my eyes open for wine quackery.

I recently gave a series of lectures at the International Restaurant (and Nightclub and Hotel) Show in Las Vegas (a hello and thank you to al that attended). The show floor was awash new and wonderful gadgets, ideas and do-das. Not to mention half naked women pouring every kind of booze imaginable.

Among the eye and literal candy there were several vendors demonstrating their "wine enhancement" products. The ones I am going to harp on here are not those that rely on unknown metaphysical forces, if I haven't convinced you yet to ignore those, then you deserve them. No, this time I am going after the devices that help wine to aerate.

I have already debunked the expensive crystal glasses in an earlier blog, but even then I wondered how well known wine personalities could be so enamored of them as to lend their endorsement to the product packaging.

The earlier glasses and the aerating products at the show did indeed make a difference to the wine. A slight difference, and one that is easy duplicated without the cost and mess, by simply swirling the wine in your glass.

So why then do these products continue to sell? Or even more to the point why were the reps at the show so surprised that they couldn't win me over when so many others had been praising their products?

The parable of the Emperor's New Clothes is so important to our society that it has become part of our social consciousness, far outliving Hans Christian Anderson. In the story we are told that only those who are worthy can see the clothes. Since everyone wants to be worthy, they all claim to see the clothes, and even convince themselves of fine details that don't exist.

Tasting wine is an odd pursuit in that each of us to some degree doubts our abilities. We almost always ask others of their impressions, and the response can not help but taint our experience, in the barrel of monkeys tradition.

Hand someone a taste of wine and tell them it is worth a great deal of money, and they will think better of the wine. That is the crux of the Sanford research. Tell them your product has greatly improved the wine and when they do taste that there is a slight difference, they will elevate that difference in their minds in an attempt to be worthy of "seeing the Emperor's clothes."

This is human nature, and it is exactly why people have been selling snake oil since the dawn of time. The moral of my lesson is to trust your own abilities and sense of taste. Stand up for what you taste in wine, and don't worry if no one else ever tastes what you do. It is all subjective, and your opinion is exactly as valuable as mine (I just have a better chance of telling you how it stacks up to other wines of the class or value).

You don't need to run out and buy the latest gizmo to enjoy wine. Just open a few bottles and have fun with the contents therein. Take the money you saved on not buying that gadget and buy a bottle of wine you have never tried before. Good or bad, the education you get from that wine will almost certainly be a better value than the myriad wine enhancers that keep popping up.

The rep who was so dismayed that someone didn't find their product earth shattering left me with this retort: "Why then do so many wineries buy our product? They wouldn't buy something that doesn't work!" It is hard for me, but I will refrain from a lesson in logic and simply point out what my regular readers already know. Not everything that a winery does, or any other human endeavor does, works.

2007 is over, long live 2008

It is the time of year for lists. It seems everyone has posted their choices of top or bottom notable events for 2007. In my never ending struggle to be different, and characteristically putting myself on the line, I offer no look back. Instead, I proffer these prognostications.

I have shared my thoughts on future advancements. There is the near certain likelihood that we will see ever more control over everything having to do with growing and making wine. The future is about dialing in character. As well I have glimpsed a future where VineBots revolutionize the vineyard. These are things to come in the long run, but what about in the near future? Here then is my list of what 2008 may offer us.

1) The Internet

This is pretty obvious to someone reading these words on the Internet, but there is more to it than you may think. There has been an ongoing battle behind the scenes regarding who can buy wine from where and have it shipped. Some, backed in large part by the Wine Distributors, want to limit these options. They point to underaged drinking and other red herrings to support their platform of fear. They are losing ground.

More and more wine will be sold over the Internet, and 2008 will be a year of critical mass. I don't mean to imply that more wine will be bought on-line than not, rather I am foretelling a huge rush towards selling on-line. Those already well entrenched will see record sales, those late to the game will be rushing to catch up, and new players will take the center stage (I am even thinking of entering the arena).

Look for big changes at the local level. 2008 may well be the year it becomes common to order your wine on-line from your local store, who will then deliver it for free. As with all Internet businesses it is hard to compete on cost, so it is always better to compete on service.

2) Bye Bye Big Fruit Bombs

Watch for the 2008 harvest to be one where people start talking about terroir and character, and get away from the highly alcoholic wines that have dominated the market for the last few years. There has been a huge amount of press decrying the amount of alcohol in wines, and at least some winemakers are likely to react to the changing sentiment.

Europe is even more likely to market their wines to the US as being food friendly, highly individual wines that emphasize where they were produced.

For the record, I love huge alcoholic, intensely fruity... Zinfandels. I don't look for the same traits in my Cabernet Sauvignon.

3) Baby Steps

The wine vine's genome has been unlocked. While the lay press in particular has been writing about the amazing, and somewhat improbable potential of this, I think most of that potential is still a long way off. The human genome was mapped in 2003, and the world has not dramatically changed, yet.

What we will see this year are the first practical applications being announced. Even these will almost certainly still be at the research stage by the end of the year, but news will be made. Look for disease resistance to be a top priority.

4) The Year of the Container.. or at least the closure.

There is a quiet revolution about to hit our shores. Heavy, expensive, and fragile glass bottles will no longer be the only option for wine lovers. Already we have seen alternative packaging popping up for lesser quality wines, but just as with the screw top, a top producer will take the plunge and change the way we look at packaging.

Speaking of screw tops, they are no longer the only game in town. Nifty new players are starting to make inroads. My favorites of these are the glass enclosure. Sterile, easy to remove and even easier to recycle, there is a lot to be said for them.

And speaking of recycling...

5) Green, Greener, and Greenest

I am hardly going out on a limb to point out that environmental concerns are dramatically changing the market. Organic and Biodynamic are going to be big buzzwords this year.

Let me stick my neck out here and just say to watch out for these terms. Taking care of the land and paying attention to sustainability are important. Ignoring the technical advances of the last 100 years and burying cows heads at the full moon are not as important.

If you like the wine, then by all means support their efforts, but don't fall for hype, and certainly don't settle for less out of green guilt.

Carbon footprint is a term you will hear more in 2008, and one of my favorite ways for a winery to do this (besides geothermal cooling/heating , which only I seem to know about) is to start selling their wines in plastic bottles. Plastic is lighter, cost less to ship, uses less fossil fuels to ship, and it doesn't break as easily.

----

And there you have it. My list may be half as many items as most lists these days, but there is more than enough there for you to ruminate over for the year to come. As always I welcome comments, criticism, and above all, investors that want to back my harebrained schemes.

Demi delicious

Half bottles of wine are great, at least in principal. They are a perfect way to prevent having to deal with left over wine. I am delighted to find them in restaurants, as it gives me a chance to sample more than one wine through a meal.

All life it seems is a compromise. With half bottles you get great benefits, but there is the inevitable downside. A half bottle of wine is more prone to environmental circumstance. In other words, it goes bad more easily.

I have been in a position of late to try many half bottles in a row (I am temporarily single). These have been bottles of my favorite wines, and I was delighted to find them in 375s. The delight turned to disappointment, repeatedly, as one after the other was in some way less than I expected.

The smaller size means that any heat or vibration damage has a greater impact. It is the inverse of why Magnums are the perfect sized bottles for aging wine. Small bottles also tend to not fit well in wine racks, unless you plan for them in advance.

I am not saying that all half bottles are likely to be bad, far from it. My spate of bad luck can be attributed to the fact that I bought all of the wines from the same place. Whatever ruined the first bottle, probably was responsible for the downfall of the others as well.

I have had better luck in the past, and I am far from swearing off half bottles. I just thought it was important to point out that a bad half bottle or two is no reason to swear off the size in general.

Ask for half bottles in restaurants, let them know you are interested. This will help propagate them in the industry, so if your favorite restaurant doesn't have any half bottles now, perhaps they will in the future.

Wine by the glass in a restaurant is a great concept, but too often poorly implemented. If the bottle has been open too long the wine will be much worse than the little variation a half bottle may be prone to.

Speaking of restaurants, I love starting with a half bottle of Champagne. Then a half bottle of white wine followed by a half bottle of red, and perhaps even a half bottle of dessert wine to finish it off. This is ideal for two, but even for the solo diner 2 or more half bottles can still be ideal. Remember, no one said you have to finish all of the wine! By the way, I send my left over wine to the Chef - the kitchen rarely gets a tip.

To pick, perchance to bottle

A couple of people asked me what happens when it rains during harvest. As the skies above some of the world's greatest vineyards seem to be dumping unending moisture on the fragile grapes, the questions seems particularly timely.

Water is an important part of the cycle of life. Almost nothing can live without it, and most non aquatic life will drown given too much water. In all things balance, and when it comes to harvesting grapes, less water is better.

Wet bunches of grapes tend to rot. Rot does not add pleasant flavors to wine. Even Nobel Rot (botrytis) which is responsible for the world's great dessert wines is not a good thing for dry wines.

Some grapes tend to have tighter bunches than others, and these are that much more susceptible to rot, since air can not easily get between the berries to dry them out. And air is the key. A few warm windy days following a heavy rain can save a vintage.

Even if the grapes do not rot, they may absorb the water and swell, reducing the intensity of flavors. Picking while it is raining poses a similar danger. Wet grapes add water to your wine.

If a grape swells beyond the skin's ability to contain it, it will burst. Now you have a grape that is exposed to insects and bacteria. The aphorism about bad apples is doubly true for bad grapes. You don't want these grapes in with the rest.

The best defense against the bad grapes, not only those that may have burst, but those that may have been damaged by birds or other animals, is to hand sort. This costly and time consuming procedure is exactly what it sounds like.

Imagine staring at a conveyer belt full of grapes and trying to pick out the bad ones (along with leaves and other non grape materials). Not much fun, incredibly labor intensive and for some wineries difficult or impossible to accomplish.

Even if your grapes survive the rains, the rot, the birds and the bees (ok, yellow jackets) you may have a whole new issue to deal with. Those cloudy cool days kept your grapes from ripening, and now you are faced with the prospect of leaving your grapes out even longer than you intended, just to get that little bit of extra ripening.

The longer your grapes are left out in the field the riper they get to be sure, but also the greater the risk. The later in the season it gets, the greater the chance of frost in some regions, and rain in many others.

Winemakers that find themselves staring at soggy vineyards this week are all posing the same dramatic query. To pick, or not to pick, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler of time to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles, and by opposing, end them.

They may not have to chose between life and death, but for some it may be the financial equivalent. To play it safe and make a lesser quality wine, or to take a chance for better quality and profits. Ay, there's the rub.

The Fluidity of Reality

The scientific method is a great tool for examining assumptions. You postulate a theory, you develop a way to test your hypothesis and then you analyze the data. Eventually you publish your findings in a peer review journal. Then it is rinse and repeat.

In the world of wine the requisite experimentation that is the crux of scientific study can take a long time. A very long time in the case of vineyards. To observe a change in a vineyard often takes decades, and in the case of vineyard to well aged wine, a lifetime may easily pass.

This leads to many theories being put into practice before they have been tested. The real world is the laboratory of wine. It is easy to understand why one might be hesitant to experiment in their vineyard, a vineyard that may be the sole source of one’s livelihood.

The result are beliefs that remain in place without a great deal of study or scientific foundation to back them up. This was the subject of a speech given recently at the American Society of Enology and Viticulture conference by UC Davis’ Michael Anderson. The title “Busting Wine Myths” neatly sums up one of my own reoccurring themes. If you are so inclined, the link above makes a good read.

Anderson and others at the conference cited various well held beliefs as being facetious. They included the theory of removing fruit from the vine to help increase the concentration of flavor in the remaining berries, as well as checking assumptions regarding long held irrigation practices.

Myths persist in any field, but the mystique surrounding wine helps to perpetuate and maintain dogmatic points of view. Few are immune from this practice. I have seen my own convictions fall prey when tested. I have every reason to assume there are others yet to be toppled.

What is the lesson to be learned? That believing is easier than knowing, to be sure, but more than that it is important to remember that everyone gets it wrong now and then. Conventional wisdom changes with fashion and embraces fads, but empirical evidence stands the test of, well.. testing.

Monolithic wine beliefs seem to be overturned with each new vintage. New data, new experiments, and better testing models help us understand wine in a way not possible just a decade earlier. As this trend continues, and as technology continues to solve problems, I fully expect wine to become more consistent and of higher general quality.

I am not sure that the high end of quality will ever budge, a great wine is a great wine by any standard. What we will continue to see is the bar being raised on the low end. Bulk wines may someday be better than what was bought as special occasion wine a generation ago.

Through it all a few voices cry out warnings. “Beware that we do not lose site of ‘place’ in wine, terroir is what makes wine special.” Listen to the voices, it is variety that makes wine fun. Most of all, as always, listen to your own voice and drink what you enjoy. Busting myths make for great TV and we pundits love how it makes us sound when we espouse on the latest discovery, but it is, always has been, and always will be, just about the juice.

Tech Time

If I wasn’t a wine writer I would probably be a technology writer. I certainly have blurred the line between the two on occasion in this very venue. Wine can be as high tech to produce as it is low tech to enjoy. A glass and a way to get the bottle open is all you really need to taste wine, but the number of choices technology brings to the modern winemaker is staggering.

There is of course already a catchy phrase for the coming wine revolution: Dialing In. The winemaker will be able to dial in exactly what they want their oak barrels to accomplish. They will have the opportunity to dial in traits for the yeast they use. Soon there may even be ways to dial in exact flavor components like black pepper.

Recent advances have pointed research in the right direction to someday be able to create the black pepper taste on demand in any wine. This is done in the vineyard, and that is where we will see some of the biggest changes.

The wine grape’s genome has recently been mapped. Now that we know what the genes are we can begin the laborious task of doing something about it. The sort of benefits we can expect include disease and pest resistant varieties, tailoring to specific micro climates and of course, greater defenses against drought and heat.

I have already postulated on robotic vine tenders, so I am hardly taking a risk to speculate that someday we could have vines that change color when they are ready to be harvested. They could even indicate their water and nutrient requirements, with easy to respond to visual clues. As the saying goes, the possibilities…

At this point some of you may have come to the conclusion that I don’t buy into the “frankenfood” hysteria. Anyone that knows me realizes that this is where I will *cite Norman Borlaug who “believes that genetically engineering crops is little different from the cross-breeding among plant species that occurs in nature, and he argues that it is irresponsible for affluent environmentalists to prevent these types of foods from reaching developing nations.*

Oak is getting the modern makeover as well. Gone are the days when a cooperage would only make a few types of barrels. Increasingly they are using computer control of heat and time to specify different barrel characteristics for different needs. This is exactly what they have been doing for centuries, but now they claim a precision that makes a barrel specific to white wine, or even a single varietal.

A little more or less heat over a little more or less time and you add more or less flavors like vanilla and clove and woody spices. Mix up the type of oak in the barrel and add or take away a characteristic. One can even go so far as to mix grain size or oak species in a single barrel. All in pursuit of control.

The hardest workers in a winery are also the smallest. The yeast may be tiny, but what the lack in size, they make up for in numbers. It would seem to make common sense that the more control over the fermentation process you have, the more control over the resulting wine you have. This is what the yeast companies are banking on, as they continue to separate strains of yeast into ever more specific cultures.

It is not just about picking yeast in an attempt to influence flavor profile, some yeast foams less, some unstick fermentations, some do better or worse in more or less alcohol. There is a fascinating glimpse at all of the choices one can make in selecting yeast here at the Winemaking Home Page. Genetics will be having a huge affect on yeast as well.

New techniques in filtering are making wines less prone to bacterial problems, while leaving less of a mark on the wine. Removing alcohol has been one of the most recent innovations to have a huge effect. it has been estimated that 40% of wines in some regions have been through this process. It allows one to use riper grapes without making a wine that is too overwhelming in alcohol, or to reduce the tax liability (wine is taxed on alcohol content).

The choices don’t end at growing grapes or making the wine, there are an increasing number of choices in bottles and closures. Everyone has seen a screw cap on a decent bottle of wine by now, but have you seen the Zork? This clever closure has a peel away strip, then you just pull out the top which makes a satisfying cork like pop as it is released.

I am particularly enamored of the Vino-Seal myself. This glass stopper has a tight fitting o-ring and all the benefits that sterile glass offers. The first time you open one you will have no doubt that the seal it makes is sufficient to protect the wine. It is also easily recycled and even easier to keep to reuse.

Glass bottles too are in line for a refreshing. Rising fuel costs have made weight a great issue while demand continues to outstrip availability. As new glass manufacturers come into play the industry may well see innovations in materials as the new companies find ways to distinguish their product lines.

Nifty barrels, new closures, even genetically designed grapes are all going to make a huge difference but as always it is the winemaker that makes the wine. I love technology; I love gadgets; I love the promise of a shiny tomorrow, but mostly I love what works. Sometimes the best solution is pencil and paper. Time will tell.

Love that Grape Crush

It is harvest time in the Northern Hemisphere. I always liked the colloquial term “crush.” I suppose the association with the grape flavored beverage is part of the reason. The soda may even be responsible for the popularity of the phrase for everyone else. Whatever you call it, it is underway.

This is a delicate time for the grapes. Too much sun, too little sun, rain, frost, birds, these are all part of the litany of things that can effect the outcome of the vintage. It has been a wacky year for weather with much of the World getting soaked only to end up with earlier than usual picking times. Earlier than usual may be the one common thread.

It was warm all over. It is tempting to wag a finger at the omnipresent global warming specter, but weather trends are not the same as climate change. I read that a lot this year. Still, it was a warm year.

Wet, it was wet, with many parts of Europe plagued by rain. Wet means mildew, and mildew is an ancient nemesis of the vine. Chemicals help, as do thinning leaves and increasing air flow. It is not unheard of for higher end vineyards to hire helicopters to dry out the vineyards. Wet, especially combined with warm also means disease.

Without enough sun the grapes will not end up with enough sugar to make decent wine. With trends towards higher alcohol style wines, the grapes need that much more sugar. This means hang time, and hang time means gambling against the calendar.

Many great vintages have been concluded well into October. October can also see the first frosts, or the beginning of long rainy periods. Either of these conditions can ruin a crop that was waiting for the perfect degree of ripeness.

Ripeness doesn’t just mean sugar. It also means the development of flavors. Sugars increase during warm days, but flavors improve with cool nights. If there is not enough difference between the day time and evening temperatures, flavors will suffer.

Grapes evolved as a way for the plant to distribute seeds with the help of birds. Birds are quite willing to do their part, but most vineyard owners have other plans for the fruit. The scarecrow may have been replaced by ever escalating technology, but the birds haven’t given up yet.

Frost and mold have their places too. It is the mold botrytis that is responsible for many of the world’s greatest dessert wines. So we do want wet conditions, in the right place at the right time. Frost, or at least freezing rain is responsible for ice wines, another group of dessert wines I am fond of.

Crush then is a time to wish for sun, but not too much. Rain, but not too late or too early or too much. Cool nights, but warm days. Vineyard owners are also wishing for more help, more grapes, more certainty. Winemakers want more sugar, more flavor, more even ripening.

Wishes are not in my power to grant. If they were this would be a much different blog, and chances are I would not be writing it. I can offer a guarantee, with a modicum of solace. There will always be next year. Until there’s not.